REGIONAL ANALYSIS
Sub-Saharan Africa
By Mark von Riedemann
Continental events in Africa during the reporting period have been overshadowed by an explosion of violence inflicted on military and civilian populations in sub-Saharan Africa by local and transnational jihadist groups, which systematically persecute all those who do not accept the extreme Islamist ideology.
And the numbers are alarming. According to a 2023 study by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, violence perpetrated by militant Islamists in the Sahel and Somalia “accounted for 77 percent of the total reported violent events across Africa in 2022”.[1] Of these, civilian deaths rose from “4,307 in 2021 to 7,220 in 2022” a 68 percent increase, a significant marker as “militant groups are not focused on winning hearts and minds so much as intimidating local populations into compliance”.[2]
An opportunistic caliphate
The violence is driven, in many cases, by a toxic marriage of Islamist jihadists, organised criminality, and home-grown bandits: profit-driven mercenaries or local fighters pursuing local interests incited by extremist preachers and armed by transnational terrorist groups. These groups target state authorities, the military, police, and civilians including Muslim, Christian and traditional religious leaders and faithful.
The flourishing of radicalisation and violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa can be attributed to a number of social factors including: poverty, corruption, governance weakness, illiteracy, youth unemployment, a lack of access to resources, separatist movements, and pre-existing intercommunal violence between herders and farmers over land rights (exacerbated by climate change impact)[3], which all combine to fuel resentment and sustain armed violence. Jihadist movements fill the gap through ideology, economic opportunity (weapons and money) and a promised end to corruption.[4]
Transnational jihadist groups such as ISIS and Al-Qaeda do not create new divisions but exploit and deepen existing ones. The strategy is less the conquering and defence of a fixed territory, an Islamic “state” as attempted in Iraq and Syria, but rather a mobile, opportunistic caliphate favouring attacks on (preferably) mineral rich rural areas where thinly stretched miliary forces are less able to defend. Attacks against cities are intended to terrorise but also to pin down military forces in urban areas.
The proliferation of Islamist extremism
Islamist violence is found across Africa, but the main theatres of jihadist activity are concentrated in the Sahel, the Lake Chad Basin, Somalia, and Mozambique.
The main Islamist groups operating in these regions include: the transnational Al-Qaeda and affiliates (i.e., Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, AQIM); the transnational Islamic State and affiliates (ISWAP, ISGS, ISS); Jama’at Nusrat al Islam (JNIM), a coalition of individual Islamist extremist groups and their affiliates; Al-Shabaab (Somalia) and affiliates; and Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’a (ASWJ), aka Al-Shabaab aka IS-Moz and their affiliates; Boko Haram and affiliates; and finally unaffiliated militant groups.[5]
Western Sahel, the borderlands of Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, experienced “the most rapid expansion of militant Islamist violence of any theatre” in 2022. It accounted for 7,899 deaths, more than 40 percent of the continental total of fatalities.[6]
“The Islam of the armed groups is not the Islam of our brothers”
Burkina Faso has become a main theatre for jihadist operations experiencing a “69-percent increase in militant Islamist-linked fatalities totalling 3,600 deaths” in 2022 alone.[7] Led mainly by groups linked to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, these have killed thousands of people and displaced over 1.9 million[8] with jihadist groups controlling more than 40 percent of the country.[9]According to Catholic Bishop Laurent Dabiré, “The country is being attacked by diverse groups that use Islam for propaganda or for mobilisation. The Islam of the armed groups is not the Islam of our brothers. The Muslims of Burkina are themselves targets.”[10]
Endemic violence first visited Mali in 2012 when jihadist groups seized control of the north. Here the state is virtually absent, free reign for battles between Islamic State and Al-Qaeda-linked extremists (JNIM) as well as with non-jihadist, predominantly Tuareg, rebels.[11] A new front has opened in central Mali inflicting human rights abuses on civilians caught in a web of violence between the military, mercenary forces including the Russian Wagner group, and the onslaught by jihadists. According to Catholic clergy, armed groups near Mopti banned alcohol and pork, and forced women of all faiths to wear veils. Christian communities near Didja reported Shari‘a being imposed, and being compelled to learn the Qu’ran and Islamic prayers.[12]
The Lake Chad Basin at the intersection of Nigeria, Cameroon, Chad, and Niger, remains the third most deadly region in Africa, “comprising 20 percent of all militant Islamist-linked fatalities”.[13]Boko Haram and Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) continue to carry out attacks against military and civilians with Chad suffering from persistent humanitarian challenges with more than one million people displaced, and food insecurity following missed harvests affecting more than 5.3 million people.[14]
In Nigeria, although Boko Haram was weakened with the death of its leader Abubakar Shekau in May 2021, the group continued indiscriminate attacks against military and civilians recording a 57 percent increase in violent attacks and a 70 percent jump in fatalities in north-west Nigeria, Chad and south-eastern Niger.[15] Boko Haram’s main splinter group, ISWAP, not only attacked security forces and civilians in the north-eastern Borno State, but expanded to include Kano, Kogi, Niger, and Taraba states.[16] Contrary to Boko Haram’s kill and loot approach, ISWAP implements a form of governance over territory invaded encouraging civilian trade, imposing taxation and “settling local disputes through Sharia courts”. The “punishment of cattle rustlers” has, according to the International Crisis Group, “won the group a degree of acceptance from locals” and is likely to grow and expand.[17] In the predominantly Muslim north, Christians face systemic discrimination including: exclusion from government positions, abduction and forced marriage of Christian women by Muslim men, no authorisations granted for church or chapel constructions, and the imposition of the Muslim hijab on all female students in all secondary schools.[18]
A 70 percent annual increase in violent events linked to militant Islamist groups in the Sahel drove extremist violence in Africa to record levels in 2021. [©Africa Center for Strategic Studies]
“Amongst the various traditions, the Christian community is the most targeted”
Cameroon struggles with sectarian conflict as well as external terrorist threats. Internal challenges are focused on the Anglophone crisis, factional violence between anglophones and francophones in Cameroon’s north-west and south-west regions. Furthermore, Cameroon’s Far North region has been destabilised by violence from competing armed extremists such as Boko Haram and the splinter group ISWAP. Amongst the various traditions, the Christian community is recognised as the most targeted with reports of jihadists abducting “numerous civilians, including Christian women and girls who were often sexually abused and forced into marriage with Muslim men”.[19]
Niger confronts armed conflict, population displacement and food insecurity along its borders with Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Mali, and Libya. The nation witnessed a 43 percent increase in violent events in 2022.[20] Hostilities erupted because of ethnic disputes and competition over resources, but also from attacks by jihadist groups linked to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State, and Boko Haram from Nigeria.
In Somalia, Al-Shabaab controls large swaths of territory imposing their own interpretation of Islam and Shari’a on both Muslims and non-Muslims. This includes a ban on all forms of media, entertainment, smoking, and any behaviour deemed as un-Islamic, such as shaving beards. The small number of non-Muslim believers are largely Christian converts from Islam. Conversion is seen as a betrayal to family and community; an individual even suspected of conversion is likely to face harassment, intimidation or even murder.[21]
Although Al-Shabaab lost domination over some territory in Kenya, the group remains consolidated in the area launching sporadic attacks. The government’s anti-terrorism activities are allegedly disproportionately targeting Muslims, driven by societal fear and political frustration; the largest contingent of foreign fighters in Al-Shabaab are Muslim Kenyans with jihadists often targeting state institutions.[22]
With regards to the Southern Africa subregion, insurgency attacks increased in Mozambique by an ISIS affiliated jihadist group called Ahlu Sunnah wa Jama’a (ASWJ) – known locally as Al-Shabaab (no relation to Somalia’s Al Qaeda-affiliate, Al-Shabaab) and internationally as IS-Moz. According to a report by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, IS-Moz numbers “at least 1,000 militants” attempting to capture Cabo Delgado to establish “an Islamist breakaway regime”.[23] Reported violent incidents in 2022 – killings, abductions, looting, and destroying property – increased by 29 percent. These attacks were notable as violence was mainly directed against civilians (Christians and Muslims) accounting for 66 percent of all violent events, more than any other region on the continent.[24] To date more than a million people are internally displaced.[25]
Jihadists target religious leaders as coercive tools to spread fear
In the Great Lakes region, at the borders of Rwanda, Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Uganda, competition for mineral resources has resulted in ferocious violence and horrific human rights abuses. Estimates indicate up to 122 armed groups are active in DRC alone[26] where, particularly in the northern and eastern parts of the country, militias such as M23 and jihadists such as the Alliance of Democratic Forces (ADF - an ISIS African branch) terrorise the population and target religious leaders as coercive tools to spread fear. From April to June 2022, the UN recorded nearly 1,000 civilian deaths, with 700,000 displaced in all of 2022.[27] In Uganda, several attacks by the same ADF were reported, especially in the east of the country where extremists threaten the Christian population and target churches.
In addition to gold, timber and diamonds, Central African Republic (CAR) ishome to so-called rare earth minerals essential for the digital economy.[28] On 30 June 2022, the CAR Catholic Bishops Conference denounced all actors involved in the violence including guerrilla groups, Russian mercenaries, Rwandan soldiers, and the Central African Armed Forces.[29] The bishops condemned the horrors inflicted including “human and material destruction, abuse, rape and violation of human rights, destruction of property [and] places of worship, and exploitation of religious beliefs”.[30]
The most significant development in Ethiopia in the period under review was the start of the civil war in the country’s northern Tigray region. While not religiously motivated, reports indicated that Eritrean and Ethiopian troops attacked both churches and mosques. Violence against religious communities included an attack on Muslims during the funeral of a prominent local sheik in Gondar in April 2022, though perhaps the nadir of the conflict was the massacre of reportedly up to 800 people at the Orthodox Maryam Tsiyon Church in Aksum.[31] As for Eritrea, the regime ruled by the unelected president, Isaias Afewerki, emphasizes “martyrdom for the nation” and decrees that citizens live accordingly.[32] It is a dictatorship in which most human rights, including religious freedom, are non-existent.
Working towards peace
Notwithstanding the tensions and violence, it is also important to state the constructive interreligious efforts. Of note were the visits of Pope Francis to DRC and South Sudan in January and February 2023 in which he called upon leadership in both countries to work towards peace.
Among the myriad of national efforts, in Cameroon, government officials joined 60 Muslim and Christian clerics and hundreds of Muslims and Christians in the capital, Yaoundé, to pray for peace during the Africa Football Cup of Nations.[33]
In the Ivory Coast, Christian and Muslim religious leaders gathered in Abidjan for an international symposium under the title “The Eternal Message of Religions” in which a common declaration was agreed that “solidarity, fraternity and dialogue among all religions must be the very basis of social peace”.[34]
In Central African Republic, an interfaith group called the Platform of Religious Confessions of Central Africa united the religious leaders of the country’s Muslim, Evangelical, and Catholic communities. Together the leaders courageously travelled to the front lines to reopen dialogue between armed groups and elected officials.[35]
Long-term risks
According to the UN’s World Food Programme, displacement across the Sahel (the nations of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger) over the past three years has “increased by almost 400 percent”.[36]In the same region during the same period, the number of people facing starvation “has skyrocketed from 3.6 to 10.5 million”.[37]
If left unchecked, the cycle of violence, displacement, and famine will continue to degrade provoking further long-term consequences including deeper intercommunal rifts, economic decline, political instability, and the rendering destitute of millions. Although Muslims and Christians are equally victims to extremist violence, with the growing Islamist radicalisation, Christians tend to increasingly become a specific target for the terrorists, eliminating the characteristic religious pluralism – and harmony – of the region.
Endnotes / Sources
[1] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, Africa Center for Strategic Studies (a think tank of the US Department of Defence), 6 February 2023; https://africacenter.org/spotlight/fatalities-from-militant-islamist-violence-in-africa-surge-by-nearly-50-percent/
[2] "Militant Islamist violence in Africa surges – deaths up nearly 50%, events up 22% in a year", The Conversation, 7 March 2023; https://theconversation.com/militant-islamist-violence-in-africa-surges-deaths-up-nearly-50-events-up-22-in-a-year-200941
[3]Jihadist networks in sub-Saharan Africa, origins patterns and responses”, Briefing, European Parliament, by Branislav Stanicek with Mathilde Betant-Rasmussen, European Parliament Research Service, September 2021; https://www.europarl.europa.eu/thinktank/en/document/EPRS_BRI(2021)698048
[4] WANEP, “The Current Dynamics and Challenges of Violent Extremism in Western Africa”, West Africa Network for Peacebuilding, 2018. www.caert.org.dz/Research/WANEP.pdf (accessed on 3 April 2020).
[5] "Africa’s Active Militant Islamist Groups", Africa Center for Strategic Studies, January 2022; https://africacenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/Map-Africas-Active-Militant-Islamist-Groups-January-2022.pdf
[6] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[7] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[8] "Dozens killed in two suspected jihadist attacks in Burkina Faso", France 24, 5 July 2022; https://www.france24.com/en/africa/20220704-dozens-killed-in-two-suspected-jihadist-attacks-in-burkina-faso
[9] "10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023", International Crisis Group, 1 January 2023; 10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023 | Crisis Group
[10] "Burkina Faso: Horror-stricken after massacre", ACN International, 15 June 2021; https://acninternational.org/burkina-faso-horror-stricken-after-massacre/ (accessed 3 January 2023).
[11] "10 Conflicts to Watch in 2023", op. cit.
[12] US State Dept., “Mali”, 2021 Report on International Religious Freedom, 2 June 2022; https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-report-on-international-religious-freedom/mali
[13] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[14] "Chad Humanitarian Response Plan 2022 (March 2022)", OCHA, 14 Mar 2022; https://reliefweb.int/report/chad/tchad-plan-de-r-ponse-humanitaire-2022-mars-2022
[15] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[16] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[17] "After Shekau: Confronting Jihadists in Nigeria’s North East", International Crisis Group, 29 March 2022; https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/west-africa/nigeria/after-shekau-confronting-jihadists-nigerias-north-east
[18] "Nigeria at the Crossroads", ACN International, 2023; https://acninternational.org/country/nigeria/
[19] “2021 Report on International Religious Freedom: Cameroon”, US Department of State, 2 June 2022; https://www.state.gov/reports/2021-report-on-international-religious-freedom/cameroon/
[20] "Fatalities from Militant Islamist Violence in Africa Surge by Nearly 50 Percent”, op. cit.
[21] ACI Africa, Inside Christianity in Somalia Where Most Catholics are Foreign Nationals, 2nd July 2021, https://www.aciafrica.org/news/3785/inside-christianity-in-somalia-where-most-catholics-are-foreign-nationals (accessed 25th April 2022).
[22] "Kenya’s Muslims: a divided community with little political clout", by Laura Hood, The Conversation, 7 August 2022; https://theconversation.com/kenyas-muslims-a-divided-community-with-little-political-clout-184436 (accessed 23 December 2022).
[23] "The Islamist insurgency in Mozambique", International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), August 2021; https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/2021/the-islamist-insurgency-in-mozambique
[24] "The Islamist insurgency in Mozambique", op. cit.
[25] "UNICEF Mozambique Humanitarian Situation Report No. 12, (End Year) Jan - Dec 2022", UNICEF, 3 February 2023; https://reliefweb.int/report/mozambique/unicef-mozambique-humanitarian-situation-report-no-12-end-year-jan-dec-2022
[26] "Militia Raids in Eastern DR Congo Kill 10 Civilians, Says Army", VOA, 28 February 2021; https://www.voanews.com/a/africa_militia-raids-eastern-dr-congo-kill-10-civilians-says-army/6202671.html#:~:text=One%20recent%20report%20by%20analysts%20the%20Kivu%20Security,south%3A%20Ituri%2C%20North%20Kivu%2C%20South%20Kivu%20and%20Tanganyika
[27] "UN: Well-Armed M23 Rebels Resurgent in DRC", VOA, 29 June 2022; https://www.voanews.com/a/un-well-armed-m23-rebels-resurgent-in-drc/6638775.html
[28] AFRICA/CENTRAL AFRICA - The Bishops: "The wild exploitation of the country's resources is destroying the environment", Agenzia Fides, 19 January 2022; http://www.fides.org/en/news/71478-AFRICA_CENTRAL_AFRICA_The_Bishops_The_wild_exploitation_of_the_country_s_resources_is_destroying_the_environment
[29] "AFRICA/CENTRAL AFRICA - The Bishops: "The food crisis is just round the corner", Agenzia Fides, 30 June 2022; http://www.fides.org/en/news/72445-AFRICA_CENTRAL_AFRICA_The_Bishops_The_food_crisis_is_just_round_the_corner
[30] "AFRICA/CENTRAL AFRICA - The Bishops: "The food crisis is just round the corner", op. cit.
[31] “Ethiopia: Eritrean troops’ massacre of hundreds of Axum civilians may amount to crime against humanity”, Amnesty International, 26 February 2021 https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2021/02/ethiopia-eritrean-troops-massacre-of-hundreds-of-axum-civilians-may-amount-to-crime-against-humanity
[32] BTI Transformation Index, Eritrea Country Report 2022; https://bti-project.org/en/reports/country-report/ERI
[33] "Cameroon Christians and Muslims Pray for Peace in Cameroon During AFCON", VOA, 7 January 2022; https://www.voanews.com/a/cameroon-christians-and-muslims-pray-for-peace-in-cameroon-during-afcon/6386702.html
[34] "Interreligious declaration of Abidjan: "Religions must be the basis of peace", Agenzia Fides, 1 March 2022; http://www.fides.org/en/news/71741-AFRICA_IVORY_COAST_Interreligious_declaration_of_Abidjan_Religions_must_be_the_basis_of_peace
[35] "The Central African Republic’s faith leaders are the country’s best hope for peace", by Christine Luby, Religious News Service, 8 March 2021; https://religionnews.com/2021/03/08/the-central-african-republics-faith-leaders-are-the-countrys-best-hope-for-peace/
[36] “Africa’s Sahel region facing ‘horrendous food crisis’”, World Food Programme, 16 February 2022; https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/02/1112122
[37] "Africa’s Sahel region facing ‘horrendous food crisis’", op. cit.
